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15. New York Yankees (84-78, fourth in AL East, 718 runs scored, 697 runs allowed).
The Yankees did this already, surrounding Aaron Judge with a JV offense two years ago and nearly slipping under .500 for the first time since 1992. They corrected by renting Juan Soto for a year, and with Soto now a Met, they’re back where they started. This is a somewhat better lineup than in ’23, with 115 OPS+ types in Cody Bellinger, Jazz Chisholm Jr., maybe Jasson Dominguez providing depth. It’s not the same as having Soto around, though, and I have them down 100 runs year over year.
The pitching may not be good enough to support that, not down Gerrit Cole for the year, Luis Gil for a half, and Clarke Schmidt for the moment. Marcus Stroman went from the bullpen to the #3 starter just by standing around. Carlos Carrasco, who has a 5.32 ERA (4.65 FIP) since 2021 is the #5 starter. Three of the top six relievers are injured, and Ryan Yarbrough was just signed off the street to provide depth. A couple of years ago I was hammering home the point that the Yankees were more about preventing runs than scoring them; this year’s team is missing so many pieces it may not be able to do that as well.
For all the moves the Yankees made to replace Soto, all the money they invested, their chance to stay in the AL East race likely comes down to their homegrown players. Judge, obviously, but also Dominguez, the long-time prospect who is taking over in left field. Austin Wells, Anthony Volpe, Ben Rice, and Oswaldo Cabrera are all in the projected starting lineup. That group has to be average, average-plus at the plate, as a group, to keep this offense above water. Throw in Will Warren as the #4 starter, and the 2025 Yankees open the year more reliant on their player development than they have been in a long time.
At the center of all this is Judge, who is about one good year from locking up a spot in the Hall of Fame. He’s put up two all-time seasons in the last three, notching two MVP awards in the process. Can he defy the history that says tall hitters don’t maintain their health or performance in their thirties? He’s already held his performance through 32, putting him on a very short...well, tall...list with Dave Winfield and Frank Howard. The Yankees’ hopes for ’25 are on Judge’s broad shoulders, and as much as I doubted him -- teammate Giancarlo Stanton shows why -- I’d like to be wrong. Few players are as watchable as Judge is.
Upside: The Yankees’ young players build on 2024’s work and form a 15-win core, keeping the team from needing to involve a weak bench and its limited internal depth. The lockdown bullpen does the rest on the way to 91-71 and a division title.
Downside: The loss of half a starting rotation is too much to bear, especially since neither Max Fried nor Carlos Rodon is a horse themselves. The floor here is high, but the team still misses the playoffs, and ends its 32-season streak of above-.500 seasons, at 79-83.
The Whole Hog: Anthony Volpe has been a top-70 player in his first two seasons, with one of the best defensive track records in the game, efficient baserunning, and durability. So why does it feel like he’s been a little disappointing? Volpe has been caught, at the plate, between Derek Jeter cosplay and putting his significant pull power to work. He has to resolve that, and for the latter, this year. Volpe has MVP-votes upside as soon as right now.
